The markets across the globe are in a queue to accept the US markets decision as DOW falls to 6-year lows. The Nifty is holding above 2735 could be a challenge as the global concern has worsen than expected.
The Nifty at home was down by Budget sentiment and followed by the US concern could hold for two days above 2750. The recovery in RIL is very important as the Banking sector lost more than 15% in some stocks and around 10% in most of the heavy weights despite the expectation of rate cut on the cards.
The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.
Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
The LONG unwindings…..
The interim budget has everything for the forth coming elections but not for the industry. It is more so for the stock markets. How can we expect fire works from a Govt that faces elections with in 3 months?. The rumors were spread to attract retail positions building in longs and the HNI/operator building on the other side to make some quick money in a week. It is very unlikely that a retailer build against position.
The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.
The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level then at 2885-83 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support at 1291-93 level.
The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.
The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.
The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level then at 2885-83 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support at 1291-93 level.
The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
The Asian drag….
The Asian markets are in no good mood to move up can spread their shadow on our markets. The Nifty is good above 2915 level and has resistance above 2950 level.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
The hope beneath …..
The markets are expecting some miracle to save from the grave situation. The fast deterioration of the confidence at the future is the main concern. This is more worrying in India than in US. The world has accepted the fact that the US is in recession that to in deep but the un conventional accenting facts that are fast emerging is that the future of the emerging markets are also becoming bleak.
The Indian authorities are confident that the growth rate is at 7% but the fall in the commodities and the real estate sector is hurting the investment proposals. The auto sector is reeling under demand contraction is a classic example of slow down in economy. When there is slow down in goods vehicles is that there is less produce to transport and no demand to export or import.
The no industry not impacted by the demand slow down but the positive signs of price movement can be felt in the same transport sector- the rise in the prices of GE Shipping, SCI, Maruti, Hero Honda and the slight up ward movement in the commodity sectors- ACC, Grasim, Ultra tech, Sail, and in Tata steel are the early signs of knowlegible HNI-people/sources entering to garner the large chunk at deep discount.
The pure technicals show that the markets are at no where movement but the violence is deep during the intraday isnot a good sign for an early Bull move. The bears are determined to short at every rise is helpful to scale new highs in a Bull market is a detrimental force while the markets are finding secured bottom to build an up move. But the fact of the life is that these forces strengthen if the markets can stand against the storm.
The Nifty could build a bottom at 2665-85 level in the early part between 21st -27th Jan and then at 2750-2780 level between 28th to 6th Feb-09. During this process the Nifty did not make any trail to cross the 2880 level on closing basis. Incase Nifty can close above the important resistance level due to the positive global cues then it could easily touch the 3050 level.
The Indian authorities are confident that the growth rate is at 7% but the fall in the commodities and the real estate sector is hurting the investment proposals. The auto sector is reeling under demand contraction is a classic example of slow down in economy. When there is slow down in goods vehicles is that there is less produce to transport and no demand to export or import.
The no industry not impacted by the demand slow down but the positive signs of price movement can be felt in the same transport sector- the rise in the prices of GE Shipping, SCI, Maruti, Hero Honda and the slight up ward movement in the commodity sectors- ACC, Grasim, Ultra tech, Sail, and in Tata steel are the early signs of knowlegible HNI-people/sources entering to garner the large chunk at deep discount.
The pure technicals show that the markets are at no where movement but the violence is deep during the intraday isnot a good sign for an early Bull move. The bears are determined to short at every rise is helpful to scale new highs in a Bull market is a detrimental force while the markets are finding secured bottom to build an up move. But the fact of the life is that these forces strengthen if the markets can stand against the storm.
The Nifty could build a bottom at 2665-85 level in the early part between 21st -27th Jan and then at 2750-2780 level between 28th to 6th Feb-09. During this process the Nifty did not make any trail to cross the 2880 level on closing basis. Incase Nifty can close above the important resistance level due to the positive global cues then it could easily touch the 3050 level.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
The symmetry and possibility….
The stock market is the best approved place where the history is well recognized to predict the future. The technical analysts are interested to extrapolate with an extension/drawn forward to predict the future based on the past. So the stock market predictors rely on the past and believe that the past is filled with vigor to reap profits in future. To draw a conclusion on the matter I want to go to a thumb rule to read the future performance. The possibility of a repetition to make right symmetry could be possible at Nifty.
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
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